• This is default featured slide 1 title

    Go to Blogger edit html and find these sentences.Now replace these sentences with your own descriptions.This theme is Bloggerized by Lasantha Bandara - Premiumbloggertemplates.com.

  • This is default featured slide 2 title

    Go to Blogger edit html and find these sentences.Now replace these sentences with your own descriptions.This theme is Bloggerized by Lasantha Bandara - Premiumbloggertemplates.com.

  • This is default featured slide 3 title

    Go to Blogger edit html and find these sentences.Now replace these sentences with your own descriptions.This theme is Bloggerized by Lasantha Bandara - Premiumbloggertemplates.com.

  • This is default featured slide 4 title

    Go to Blogger edit html and find these sentences.Now replace these sentences with your own descriptions.This theme is Bloggerized by Lasantha Bandara - Premiumbloggertemplates.com.

  • This is default featured slide 5 title

    Go to Blogger edit html and find these sentences.Now replace these sentences with your own descriptions.This theme is Bloggerized by Lasantha Bandara - Premiumbloggertemplates.com.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Arsenal's Finances - 21 Questions


Just a few months ago Arsenal were riding high, as they still had credible chances to win trophies in four competitions. However, a late defeat to unfancied Birmingham City in the Carling Cup final initiated an awful sequence of events. Elimination by Barcelona in the Champions League was maybe predictable, though hopes had been high after a scintillating victory in the first leg, but the collapse of form in the Premier League was less understandable.

The fans were not best pleased by the club’s decision to raise ticket prices by 6.5% after another disappointing end to a season, especially against the backdrop of a takeover by one of the world’s wealthiest individuals, Stan Kroenke. Their mood was not exactly improved when the club sold its best two players, Cesc Fàbregas and Samir Nasri, in the summer.

Although there were sound reasons for these departures (Fàbregas wanted to return to his home town team; Nasri was entering the final year of his contract), it still seemed to underline Arsenal’s diminishing status and reinforce the label of a selling club. As manager Arsène Wenger said a few weeks earlier, “Imagine the worst situation, that we lose Fàbregas and Nasri. You cannot convince people that you are ambitious after that.”

"Oh Mickey, you're so fine"

That was a bitter pill to swallow, but could have been sweetened by the arrival of world-class replacements. The rumour mill spoke of hefty bids for the likes of Eden Hazard, Yann M’Vila, Mario Götze, Juan Mata and Santi Cazorla, but the fans had to make do with the last minute arrival of lesser lights like Mikel Arteta, Yossi Benayoun, Per Mertesacker, André Santos and Park Chu-Young. All fine professionals, no doubt, but not really the players to take Arsenal to the next level. These purchases in the latter stages of the transfer window smacked of desperation, rather than any coherent strategy.

The early signs for the new Arsenal have not been promising, as the club has endured its worst start to a campaign for over 50 years. Although the club has done pretty well in the Champions League, drawing away to Borussia Dortmund and winning at home against Olympiacos, the performances have not displayed Arsenal’s customary assured passing style. In the Premier League, it has been even worse with four defeats in the first seven games, including a humiliating 8-2 thrashing by Manchester United, a scarcely believable 4-3 loss to Blackburn Rovers and, most painfully of all, a 2-1 reverse against Spurs in the North London derby.

Arsenal’s support has always found some comfort in their self-sustaining business model, as the performance off the pitch has been the envy of most other clubs. However, even here, matters appear to have taken a turn for the worse in the recently announced financial results for 2011 with revenue falling from £380 million to £256 million and profit before tax declining from £56 million to £15 million. Clearly, that’s still far from shabby, but if you consider the magnitude of Arsenal’s profits in the last three years (2008 - £37 million, 2009 - £46 million), it’s a fair old fall.

Of course, headline figures can be highly misleading, so, with apologies to 50 Cent, let’s take a closer look at the underlying factors behind the numbers with 21 questions.

1. Why did the profit fall by so much?

There are two segments in Arsenal’s business: property development’s profit before tax actually rose by £2 million from £11 million to £13 million, while football dramatically fell £43 million from £45 million to just £2 million. Interestingly, chief executive Ivan Gazidis’s report partly attributed lower profits to a “reduced level of exceptional gains… from our property business”, but, even though the revenue was much lower, the profit is definitely higher after the write-back of an £8 million impairment provision and a £4 million reduction in interest payable, as all property debt has been cleared.

The principal reason for the huge decrease in football profit is much lower profit on player sales, which fell from £38 million in 2010 (mainly the sales of Emmanuel Adebayor and Kolo Touré to Manchester City) to £6 million in 2011 (largely Eduardo to Shakhtar Donetsk). The big money sales of Fàbregas, Nasri, Gäel Clichy and Emmanuel Eboué were not included in the 2011 results, as they took place after the accounting close of 31 May.

However, operating profit has also fallen by £11 million from £20 million to £9 million, as revenue was essentially flat at £225 million, while the wage bill surged 12% from £111 million to £124 million. Although player amortisation was £3 million lower, due to the limited investment in new players, this was offset by £3 million of exceptional costs associated with the takeover of the club.

2. Is the football business still profitable?

Yes, but the latest profit of £2 million emphasises how reliant the business model has become on player sales. Excluding the £6 million profit from this activity in 2011 would result in a loss of £4 million, partly due to the annual interest payments of £14 million that the club has had to cover since the club moved to the Emirates stadium.

The graph above highlights how much lower the football profit would have been if Arsenal had not been so financially astute in the transfer market. For example, the thumping great £56 million profit last year included £11 million from property development and £38 million from player sales. Without these exceptional factors, the pure football profit was only £7 million.

It is true that Arsenal still generated a healthy cash operating profit of £46 million in 2011, albeit £11 million less than the previous year, but that excludes non cash flow expenses like player amortisation and depreciation, which have to be absorbed via asset payments.

3. So Arsenal’s profitability is no good?

Far from it. Chairman Peter Hill-Wood observed, “We have had a robust financial performance, reporting another profitable set of full year results” and that’s fair comment. In the highly demanding world of football, very few clubs actually make money, as can be seen by looking at last year’s results when only four teams in the Premier League were profitable: Arsenal way ahead of the rest at £56 million, Wolverhampton Wanderers £9 million, West Bromwich Albion £0.5 million and Birmingham City £0.1 million.

This is emphasised by the huge losses reported by Arsenal’s perennial challengers: Chelsea £70 million, Manchester United £80 million and new kids on the block Manchester City £121 million. In fairness to United, their loss include many exceptional expenses related to the restructuring of their loans and they have recently announced a £30 million profit before tax for 2011.

To underline the Gunners’ focus on financials, Arsenal’s 2011/12 profit should be sensational with the inclusion of this summer’s player sales.

"Robin Reliant"

4. Why did revenue fall so much?

Revenue dropped by £124 million from £380 million to £256 million, but football revenue actually slightly increased by £2 million from £223 million to £225 million, so the fall was entirely due to the expected slow-down in property development, which declined £126 million from £157 million to £30 million.

The Highbury Square business peaked last year with the sale of 362 apartments worth £134 million plus the disposal of the Queensland Road social housing element for £23 million. This year only 69 flats were sold, as the club “sought to achieve value rather than sell off the remaining flats at the fastest possible rate.”

"Unlucky, Theo"

5. So is the property business over?

Not quite, but it’s nearing the end. Only 16 of the original Highbury Square apartments remain to be sold, though 21 additional property units adjacent to that development will also be available from spring 2012.

Three months ago, the Queensland Road market residential element was sold to Barratt, though the revenue and costs associated with this development will only be recognised in the accounts when legal completion occurs. This is estimated to be in summer 2012, so would only be included in the 2012/13 results. No financial details of this sale have been released, but The News of the World estimated that it was worth £25 million to Arsenal.

Discussions are ongoing with Islington Council’s planning department relating to the two remaining property sites on Hornsey Road and Holloway Road.

Importantly, whatever the accounting treatment, these developments will generate a useful chunk of cash, which has been estimated at £40 million in total by the Arsenal Supporters’ Trust. When commenting on the most recent results, Ivan Gazidis specifically noted this factor, “Our property business is debt-free, so any new sales of property do accumulate cash, which is very positive for the future.”

6. What’s happened to the revenue growth?

There has been zero growth since 2009 in the football operation, where revenue has been at the same level for three years: 2009 £225 million, 2010 £223 million and 2011 £225 million.

The only revenue stream that has grown in this period is broadcasting as a result of centrally negotiated deals by the Premier League and UEFA (for the Champions League). Both of the other revenue categories have declined, most notably match day income from £100 million to £93 million. Although the much maligned commercial area rose £2 million last year to £46 million, this is incredibly still £2 million lower than the £48 million reported in 2009.

7. Are other clubs suffering from no revenue growth?

Back in 2005 Arsenal’s revenue of £115 million was the lowest of the traditional Big Four English clubs, £51 million behind Manchester United’s £166 million. The move to the Emirates stadium in 2006 helped drive Arsenal to second place in the English money league, a position they have held since then.

So far so good, but as we have seen, the wheels have come off in the last two years. Chelsea and Liverpool also experienced virtually no growth in 2010, though I would expect Chelsea’s revenue to increase following new sponsorship deals with Samsung and Adidas. Liverpool have also signed lucrative new deals with Standard Chartered and Warrior, though their figures will be hit by the failure to qualify for the Champions League.

The problem for Arsenal (and the other clubs) is that Manchester United’s revenue is still growing apace – from £286 million in 2010 to £331 million in 2011 on the back of significant commercial advances. Not only that, but the Spanish giants have also reported substantial gains in 2001: Real Madrid from £359 million to £417 million and Barcelona from £326 million to £392 million.

8. So is Arsenal’s revenue on the low side?

By no means. Last season Arsenal’s revenue was the fifth highest in Deloitte’s Money League, only behind Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United and Bayern Munich, so they’re hardly on the poverty line.

The issue is that Arsenal are struggling to increase their revenue, while the others are powering ahead. This was explicitly acknowledged by Arsène Wenger, “Barca and Real Madrid have much more financial power than they had 14 years ago, because they have individualised their TV rights.”

That’s certainly true, but Arsenal have also fallen behind on commercial income, where they only stand 13th highest in Europe. Last season their revenue of £44 million in this category was dwarfed by Bayern Munich £142 million, Real Madrid £124 million, Barcelona £100 million and Manchester United £81 million.

Not only that, but the gap is getting wider. While Arsenal’s commercial revenue slightly increased to £46 million in 2011, other leading clubs have all reported substantial improvement. In particular, Manchester United became the first English club to top £100 million from this revenue stream. Their £103 million is now £57 million more than Arsenal. Put another way, that’s the equivalent of ten players on £100,000 a week. A similar level of sponsorship money would revolutionise Arsenal’s wage structure.

9. Why is commercial revenue so low?

Arsenal’s weakness in this area arises from the fact they had to tie themselves into long-term deals to provide security for the stadium financing, which arguably made sense at the time, but recent deals by other clubs have highlighted the lost opportunities. The Emirates deal was worth £90 million, covering 15 years of stadium naming rights (£42 million) running until 2020/21 and 8 years of shirt sponsorship (£48 million) until 2014. Similarly, the club signed a 7-year kit supplier deal with Nike for £55 million until 2012, but that has since been extended by 3 years until 2014.

So, following step-ups, the shirt sponsorship deal is reportedly worth £5.5 million a season, which compares highly unfavourably to the £20 million earned by Liverpool from Standard Chartered, Manchester United from Aon and (reportedly) Manchester City from Etihad. Even more galling is that Tottenham now earn £12.5 million a season from shirt sponsorship (Auresma £10 million plus Investec £2.5 million). It’s the same story on the continent with Barcelona’s first-ever shirt sponsorship deal with the Qatar Foundation worth £26 million.

The news is no better with Arsenal’s kit deal, which now delivers £8 million a season, compared to the £25 million deal recently announced by Liverpool with Warrior Sports and the £25.4 million paid to Manchester United by Nike.

It’s not overly dramatic to say that Arsenal leave at least £30 million a season on the table, because of these historical commercial deals, which would fund the purchase of one great player every season. One of the club’s biggest challenges is how to bridge this gap until 2014, when these deals are up for renewal.

10. What is the club doing about commercial revenue?

New owner Stan Kroenke has said that he “intends to use his experience to help Arsenal continue to grow its global brand”, pledging that they “will be able to do as well as Manchester United.” Quite frankly, that seems a long way off, as United continue to raise the bar, most spectacularly the amazing DHL deal to sponsor training kit for £10 million a season, which exceeds the value of all but four of the main shirt sponsorship deals in the Premier League.

Arsenal have restructured their executive team at great expense, recruiting Tom Fox from the NBA in August 2009 as Commercial Director to “drive long-term commercial success.” However, the proof of the pudding is in the eating and so far there has been a lot of talk about “jam tomorrow”, as opposed to tangible revenue growth.

To be fair, it’s relatively early days in the club’s five-year plan and there are some signs of progress. In particular, a few secondary sponsors have been signed up recently, including Carlsberg at around £3 million a year and Indesit in a “multi-million” deal. In addition, Citroen extended their deal for a higher sum, while there were new agreements with Thomas Cook, replacing Thompson Sport, and on-line gambling firm Betsson. However, Arsenal still have less than half the number of sponsors that partner with Manchester United.

Arsenal’s tour to Malaysia and China was their first long-distance pre-season tour in 12 years and should help grow the club’s global fan base in this valuable market, potentially boosted by the signing of South Korea captain Park Chu-Young. The Guardian reported that the tour would generate £15 million, which seems on the high side, but there’s little doubt that this was a positive financial move, although may not have been ideal in terms of fitness conditioning.

Other improvements are less visible, but may deliver in the future, such as refurbishing the club premium areas and, most intriguingly, signing a multimedia distribution agreement with MP & Silva.

11. What happens if the club fails to qualify for the Champions League?

Arsenal have managed to qualify for the Champions League a remarkable 14 years in succession, though this season the side had to demonstrated impressive resilience to get through a tricky qualifying tie against Udinese. In other words, they have become accustomed to a regular infusion of substantial funds from playing in Europe.

Last season Arsenal received €30 million (£26 million) for reaching the last 16 in the Champions League, which was €3 million less than the previous year, when they progressed a round further. Even if they did not make it out of the group, they would still receive around £25 million, but the prize for doing better is considerable, e.g. last year’s finalists Barcelona and Manchester United received £44 million and £46 million respectively.

Those are just the television distributions, but there are also be additional gate receipts and bonus clauses in various sponsorship deals, increasing the amount of money at stake. In total, we’re probably looking at a £35-45 million potential revenue reduction.

The Europa League's TV distribution is very low in comparison. Last season, the two English representatives, Manchester City and Liverpool, each earned just €6 million for reaching the last 16, while the highest pay-out was only €9 million. However, at least this tournament would still deliver significant gate receipts. As the season ticket includes seven cup games, the price of the ticket would surely have to come down without Europe, so qualification for the Europa League is still worthwhile from that perspective.

In the past, Gazidis has claimed that Arsenal budget so that the club could survive missing a year of Champions League football without selling players, but there’s no doubting the importance of qualification, not least in terms of attracting the right calibre of player to the club, though Liverpool have managed to secure the services of the likes of Luis Suarez, despite being absent from Europe’s flagship competition.

12. What are the implications of slipping down the Premier League?

Even though Arsenal dropped a place to fourth in 2010/11, the Premier League distribution increased £5 million to £56 million, almost entirely due to the substantial increase in overseas rights for the new three-year deal that commenced last season. Excluding overall contract changes, there’s actually not an enormous difference between finishing third and fourth, due to the equitable nature of the distribution methodology.

Each club gets an equal share of 50% of the domestic rights (£13.8 million) and 100% of the overseas rights (£17.9 million). However, facility fees (25% of domestic rights) depend on how many times each club is broadcast live, and this was worth £11.6 million. Finally, merit payments (25% of domestic rights) are worth £757,000 per place in the league table. For example, if Arsenal were to drop, say, four places to eighth that would equate to a £3 million decrease in revenue.

13. Could they have avoided raising ticket prices?

The short answer is, of course they could, as nobody put a gun against their head, especially given that Arsenal enjoy the third highest match day income in the world, only behind Manchester United and Real Madrid. This fell slightly in 2011 from £93.9 million to £93.1 million, even though there was one more home match, as the mix was not so favourable, due to two fewer games in the Champions League. Arsenal’s season ticket prices are already among the highest in the world, though comparisons are difficult, as they include seven cup games.

Arsène Wenger made the reasonable point that the 6.5% price rise was necessary in order “to increase our income to fight with the other clubs”, but there would have been other ways of making a similar sum. For example, a bit more success on the pitch would have generated additional funds, either via a higher Premier League place (second was there for the taking) or more victories in the Champions League (remember Shakhtar Donetsk and Braga away?). Or how about one of the board directors that coined it after the sale of their shares to Kroenke paying the £3 million takeover costs borne by the club?

As the old saying goes, where there’s a will, there’s a way. Unfortunately, the club’s stance was explained by Tom Fox in an interview with an American magazine. After seeing the 40,000 waiting list for season tickets, he said “As a US sports executive… you think, you’re not charging enough for tickets.” In the business world, price increases are often considered the path of least resistance, and football club owners are proving increasingly happy to adopt the same approach, as their “customers” have the fiercest brand loyalty around. After all, an Arsenal fan is hardly likely to switch his allegiance to Spurs.

14. Will the crowd levels hold up?

Arsenal’s average attendance of 60,000 is the second highest in England, only surpassed by Manchester United’s 75,000. In fact, it is the seventh best in Europe. All good, but this level of support should not be taken for granted. Not only is the team less successful, but the quality of football at the Emirates has faded, leading to a less attractive “product” (to use a marketing term). In addition, the effects of the economic crisis mean that some fans will simply be unable to afford to follow Arsenal, a fact acknowledged by Wenger, “The stadiums will be less quickly full and we have noticed that already.”

15. Is it true that Arsenal have spent much less than other clubs on transfers?

Absolutely true. In fact, Arsenal are the only leading club to make money from buying and selling players in the era of foreign ownership (starting from the arrival of Roman Abramovich at Chelsea). Since 2003/04, Arsenal have net proceeds of £21 million, while Chelsea and Manchester City have spent well over £400 million. In the same period, Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester United have all spent around £100 million.

Billy Beane, one of the pioneers of the Moneyball approach to buying under-valued players, is a big fan of Wenger’s approach, “When I think of Wenger, I think of Warren Buffett. He runs his football club like he is going to own it for 100 years.” Stan Kroenke clearly shares his view, praising Wenger for “his ability to spend money and extract value.”

This is all well and good, but in a time when other leading clubs are generously funded by benefactor owners, some compromise might be in order. Indeed, Gazidis promised a busy summer and Arsenal splashed out £53 million on new players. Of course, they still ended up with net sales proceeds of £18 million, as players leaving brought in £71 million. If decent offers had come in for the likes of Nicklas Bendtner, Manuel Almunia, Sébastien Squillaci and Denilson, this sum may well have been even higher.

"Jackie Wilshere said"

16. How much is available to spend on transfers?

Before the summer transfer window, Ivan Gazidis said that Arsenal had a substantial transfer budget, “Financially, we're in a strong position. We have resources to spend. We're certainly not sitting there saying 'Let's hold back on our resources for some reason.' Why would we? The resources are there.” My own estimate was that the club had £35 million available excluding any surplus cash from property development. Everything else being equal, as we have seen, the summer’s activity should have produced another £18 million, which would theoretically mean a transfer budget of £53 million.

Some fans look at the club’s cash balances of £160 million, up from £128 million a year ago, and think that more money must be available, but the club has to maintain a debt service reserve for the stadium financing and also has to consider the seasonal nature of cash flows, e.g. money taken from season ticket renewals at the beginning of summer will be used to pay expenses over the next few months.

Nevertheless, it is clear that a sizeable war chest is still there, as Gazidis recently confirmed, “We deliberately kept some powder dry… There are funds available to invest in a significant way in January and next summer.” Whether the club does so is another matter, though any expenditure in January might pay for itself if it makes the difference between qualifying for the Champions League or not.

17. But what about the wages?

While Arsenal could almost certainly afford to pay transfer fees for new players, there remains the question of whether they could also afford to pay the wages. On the face of it, this should not be a problem, as Arsenal’s wage bill of £124 million is one of the highest in England. Although it is £29 million lower than Manchester United’s £153 million, that was inflated by performance-related bonus payments, so the real difference is much lower.

That said, Arsenal’s wage bill in 2010 of £111 million was overtaken by both Manchester City £133 million and Liverpool £114 million, plus it was considerably lower than Chelsea’s £173 million, though that should reduce following the departure of a number of senior players.

The pressure to compete is obvious by the deterioration in Arsenal’s wage to turnover ratio from 46% in 2009 to 55% in 2011. Although this is still one of the best in the Premier League, it is the logical result of flat revenue and 20% growth in wages (12% last season alone).

Given the magnitude of Arsenal’s wage bill, it seems strange that they do not pay top dollar to their star players, but this is due to a couple of factors. First of all, Arsenal have a very large squad with a vast number of “young professionals”, but more importantly they operate an equitable wage structure, which means that the best players are not particularly well remunerated (by modern standards), while fringe players like Abou Diaby, Thomas Rosicky and Marouane Chamakh are handsomely rewarded for their efforts. Not only does this reduce the money available to attract world class players, but it also makes it difficult to move on under-performers, hence loans for Bendtner and Denilson.

This approach needs a root and branch review, as it cannot be adjusted for an individual player or others will soon demand equivalent pay rises. This is a concern with some key players entering the final year of their contracts like Robin Van Persie, Thomas Vermaelen and Theo Walcott. Van Persie has already complained that Arsenal will not pay “enormous amounts of money”, hinting that this encourages a player’s decision to “go elsewhere.” This issue was tacitly confirmed by Wenger, “I cannot today say that if we go to the maximum we are sure to sign a player.”

18. Can the club pay off its debt?

Following the elimination of the property debt, the club has managed to reduce its gross debt to £258 million, leaving just the long-term bonds that represent the “mortgage” on the Emirates Stadium (£231 million) and the debentures held by supporters (£27 million). Once cash balances of £160 million are deducted, net debt is down to only £98 million, which is a significant reduction from the £136 million last year and the £318 million peak in 2008.

It’s not clear whether it would be possible for Arsenal to pay off the outstanding debt early in order to reduce the interest charges, but my guess is that they are in no hurry to do so, as Gazidis has previously argued that not all debt is bad, “The debt that we’re left with is what I would call ‘healthy debt’ – it’s long term, low rates and very affordable for the club.” In any case, the 2010 accounts clearly stated, “Further significant falls in debt are unlikely in the foreseeable future. The stadium finance bonds have a fixed repayment profile over the next 21 years and we currently expect to make repayments of debt in accordance with that profile.”

"No doubting Thomas"

19. Will UEFA’s Financial Fair Play help Arsenal?

Many fans believe that the FFP regulations will benefit Arsenal, as they force clubs to live within their means if they wish to compete in Europe. The theory was that this would lead to the demise of the big spending, benefactor model, while encouraging those teams who adopted a self-sustaining approach. Clearly, Arsenal will have no problem complying with the new rules, but other leading clubs are maybe not so badly placed as once feared.

Real Madrid and Bayern Munich have been consistently profitable, thanks to their huge revenue, while Barcelona have also reported regular profits except when there is a change in club president. Even Manchester United now make profits despite their ample interest payments.

Clearly, FFP will be more of a challenge for clubs like Manchester City and Chelsea, who make huge losses, but UEFA have made it easier for such clubs to conform. First, UEFA’s break-even calculation is not exactly the same as a club’s statutory accounts, as it excludes certain expenses, including depreciation on tangible fixed assets and expenditure on youth development and community development activities.

"Most ox-cellent"

Second, wealthy owners will be allowed to absorb aggregate losses (so-called “acceptable deviations”) of €45 million (£39 million), initially over two years and then over a three-year monitoring period, as long as they are willing to cover the deficit by making equity contributions.

If that wasn’t enough, clubs will be allowed to exclude wages from players signed before June 2010, so long as they are reporting an improving trend in their accounts. Granted, that “loophole” only exists for the first two monitoring periods (2013/14 and 2014/15), but it will buy the clubs time to improve their finances.

Finally, there has to be a concern that accountants and lawyers will look to bend the rules. Wenger accused Manchester City of doing just this with their £400 million Etihad deal, “They give us the message that they can get around it by doing what they want. It means financial fair play will not come in.”

In short, FFP may not prove to be the cavalry coming over the hill that some imagined for Arsenal. If it is, then it will be a good few years before it bites.

"Rambo - first touch"

20. What are Stan Kroenke’s plans?

All indications point to Kroenke being an owner that prefers not to interfere with those running the club, which he confirmed in a recent interview with the Daily Telegraph, “The idea is to put good people in place and trust them to do their jobs.” In fact, he has said that Arsène Wenger can remain at Arsenal for as long as he likes. However, you would have to think that he would take steps to protect his investment if it looked like Arsenal were struggling financially.

Although he is unlikely to push for a massive spending spree (“There’s a risk of going backwards if you over-react and start throwing money around in an attempt to solve your problems”), he is not afraid to spend, e.g. his Denver teams are among the top spenders in the NBA and NHL, while the St Louis Rams have spent the maximum allowed under the NFL salary cap rules.

He is a long-term investor who has never sold a share in one of his sporting clubs, but if he did want an exit route at Arsenal, then Alisher Usmanov, who holds just over 29% of the club’s shares, would happily provide it. He has offered £14,000 a share, which is considerably higher than the £11,750 that Kroenke paid to take his stake to around 67%. That seems unlikely, given Kroenke’s excitement about the potential at Arsenal, not least the global opportunities offered by broadcasting the Premier League.

"Pole apart"

21. What could Arsenal do to improve their finances?

Bearing in mind Peter Hill-Wood’s assertion that “strong financial performance is not an end in itself, but creates the platform from which the club can build and sustain the on-field success which is always the main objective”, there are a few actions that Arsenal could take:

a. Renegotiate the main sponsorship deals. Although these are only due for renewal in 2014, there must be some mileage in trying to negotiate an increase now in return for guaranteed renewal. Obviously, Arsenal’s ability to maximise value would be stronger if the team is winning trophies.

b. Review the wages structure to make it easier to attract world-class stars.

c. Offload under-achieving players, even if they are sold cheaply or given away, in order to have some room to manoeuvre in the wage bill.

d. Buy quality in January. This could boost the team’s performance in the second half of the season, as happened with Liverpool last season, and ensure that the likes of Van Persie don’t jump ship.

e. Rebuild the famous scouting network. It seems like ages since they beat other clubs to the best talent worldwide.

"Don't look Bac in anger"

f. Kroenke could loan the club funds to fill the hole until the commercial machine starts buzzing. He might even pay off the outstanding debt to remove the interest burden.

g. Consider a rights issue. Although an expensive (and unlikely) option, this would also raise money and might even extend the fans’ ownership scheme.

h. Inject some new blood onto the board. Former director Lady Nina Bracewell-Smith suggested that the current directors should be replaced by a more “dynamic, pro-active, younger board”, while Usmanov accused the board of lacking ambition.

i. Review the training and medical practices. Arsenal’s lengthy injury list, including crucial players like jack Wilshere and Thomas Vermaelen, has severely damaged their prospects for a few seasons. There surely must be more to it than simple misfortune.

Obviously, it’s not all doom and gloom at Arsenal. They have a fabulous stadium, a renowned academy, a great manager and a few top quality players. However, it does feel as if the club is at a crossroads and the decisions they take over the next few months could be very important for Arsenal’s future, both on and off the pitch.

Share:

Monday, October 3, 2011

Interview : FatherSez - fathersez.com

FatherSez is one of the pioneers in Malaysia Personal Finance blogsphere.  He started his first blog post on 8 September 2007, one year earlier than this blog.  He has always been one of the great minds I wanted to meet in person one day.  But little did I know back then, opportunity fade away sooner than I thought.  FatherSez passed away on 4 August 2009.


Although we never met and now lost the chance to ever meet again, we never feel far apart.  During earlier years even after 100 posts, I was still a skeptic about blogging.  It was actually FatherSez who found my sharing useful and kept me going.

Even years after his departure, I never forget every single word we transact online; through our virtual identities.  But he was busy with his venture and I was busy with my entrepreneurship back then as well.  We never met in person although both of us wanted to.  Well, at least I wanted to ( Fathersez received too many requests to meet that he couldn't accommodate to all . . . )

FatherSez is unique in his own way because it was clearly a message from parent to kids.  It was written with a legacy in mind, for the kids and the future.  I haven't read a personal finance blog that is as parental, as philosophical, as practical and most truthfully show his love toward his kids without reservation.


I was very scare and afraid after confirming the fact that he did pass away 7 months after his departure.  I worry his web site will be shut down very soon.  But 2 years down the road, I managed to contact one of his legacy, Azah.  And words cannot describe how grateful I am when I know FatherSez is still alive today.  This simply means whatever message FatherSez wanted to deliver has been well received.

What else can be more grateful 
than after you are gone, 
your messages are still 
being hold tight by someone ?

I have conducted email interviews to some of the personal finance web sites or blogs recently.  Fathersez is one of them.  Since I couldn't reach Fathersez anymore, I made a request to his legacy.  To my surprise, she accepted the interview request ...




At young age, Fathersze was one of those where today's basic necessity was not readily given by nature.  He had to walk 12km to school.  Luckily his uncle had supported him mostly not from any monetary form but most critically important - the existence of love and family tie.  Also thanks to his uncle?  Fathersez was exposed to accounting at early age, as early as his primary school time working in a cloth selling shop.  This was one of the key differentiation why he was able to contribute so much to our personal finance blogsphere today.  For other luckier kid like me, I was only worrying what lunch I can have with my 50 cents pocket money for that day.

. . . here is the original interview scripts . . . with minor censorship for privacy reason.

If you were also a FatherSez follower before you read this, you would most probably agree with me that a FatherSez 2.0 is in the making.  The way Azah write and feel for herself and also on behalf of Fathersez, clearly show how great a legacy FatherSez had left behind.  And how similar she is to her father.  And yet with a touch of 21st century of her own.

Lastly, a word for my dear friend Fathersez, for science or for faith, I hope one day you can read this . . . one way or another, I want you to know without a single doubt, a stranger like me . . .  miss you very much too.
Share:

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Retire 55 or 60 ?

Now even the star has written article to support the idea to postpone retirement age from 55 to 60.  It brought up a few points that seem inevitable but . . .

every sensible personal finance guy would feel something has gone wrong somewhere.
The fact remains that retiring at 55 in today's world seems a waste. The mortality age for Malaysians has risen
Since when the definition of wastage of my retirement is up to anyone else to say ?  I may live longer and what is that got to do with you holding my money longer than you have promised before ?

In the advancement of personal finance world, we are talking about retiring at 40's.  Since when retiring later become a good thing ?
The retirement age in Indonesia and Thailand is 60 
No one stop you to migrate there.  But right now the hot thing going is 1 Malaysia where all we talked about is how much we love our own land bla bla bla.
A longer life based on a finite and short working career certainly would put a strain on the finances of many a retiree.
and therefore we don't give them money at the time when they are suppose to be ?  Since when delaying giving money can help a financially strain guy ?
 73% of contributors have less than RM50,000 saved
So most of us are poor, and you want to solve it by NOT giving us our own money ?
the more workers a country retains as the population ages the more the benefit to the economy
Yes, wisdom and experience are invaluable.  What has that got to do with delaying paying us our money ?  All the wise old men never stop doing something anyway through out their whole life.
Based on life cycle hypotheses, people tend to spend more during the early age of their careers and save more as retirement approaches.
I am sure he just cook that sucker hypotheses up when he was drunk written that article.  People who have gone through most parts of their any life cycles knows that singles tends to save more (30-50%) than later years of loans, family and kids etc.  The middle income trap ( rat race ) clearly says that the more we earn, the less we have.
Now that they know retirement is postponed for five more years at least, those people who might be thinking of building a nest egg have the opportunity to spend.  Spending more now will certainly be a boost to domestic consumption which is a main driver of growth.

Can you believe what he has just said ?  Take away my money and I can spend more !  OMG .... WTH is this sh!T ?
it will be illogical to have separate retirement ages for the public and private sectors.
Since when it is logical to make them the same ?  What is the difference between them then ?
other benefits the Government can save on such as healthcare bills
Huh ?  People who continue working has no healthcare or people who retire has no healthcare ?  Are you suggesting another bigger problem here ?
Young people who might be worried about not moving up the ladder or getting a job should not.
What has that got to do with not paying the old people the money they were promised ?  Old people don't get paid and young people should be happy !?!?
remove all unproductive workers, you can bet others will emerge at later years. It's best that talent management is exercised to ensure such workers are minimised at all times.
Why hasn't EPF office exercise talent managment then ?

====

Change the guideline all you want since we voted you to have the power to do so.  But all the folks who were promised for the past 54 years to be paid out at age 55 before should continue be honour so.  Changing this payout age to 60 should only affect NEW work force.  All existing to-be-retire however can have the option to follow your new guideline.


Share:

Valencia - On The Road To Recovery?


Despite losing to Sevilla last weekend, Valencia have made a very promising start to this season, most evidently when they led reigning champions Barcelona twice before securing an unexpected draw. On the one hand, this should not be too much of a surprise, as Valencia have finished third in La Liga in each of the past two seasons, though admittedly they were a hefty 25 points behind Pep Guardiola’s superlative team last year. On the other hand, this represents a hugely impressive achievement for Los Che after all the upheaval they have faced both on and off the pitch.

In order to reduce their large debts, they have been forced to sell many of their best players, losing four members of Spain’s victorious 2010 World Cup squad in the last two summers. Last year the heart of the team was ripped out when the departures of David Villa to Barcelona, David Silva to Manchester City and Carlos Marchena raised over €70 million, while this year it was the turn of skilful midfielder Juan Mata, who moved to Chelsea for €27 million.

Nevertheless, club president Manuel Llorente has defiantly proclaimed, “You can always sell star players and remain competitive”, which has proved to be the case at Valencia. The team has been rejuvenated with the addition of young talents like Sergio Canales, on loan from Real Madrid, and Pablo Piatti from Almeria, while they have managed to retain the promising Pablo Hernández and Éver Banega. They have also astutely strengthened the defence by acquiring Adil Rami from French champions Lille and Spanish U-21 international Víctor Ruiz from Napoli.

"Ever "Ready" Banega"

The highly rated, young manager Unai Emery has played a pivotal role in the team’s ability to reinvent itself every season. After guiding unheralded Almeria to a first ever promotion and then eighth place in La Liga, he was recruited by Valencia in 2008. Regarded as a master tactician, Emery has worked minor miracles with the resources available and is now in his fourth season, which might not sound much, but only two other Valencia coaches have lasted as long. He has even been spoken of as a possible successor to Vicente del Bosque, when the Spain coach steps down.

Valencia’s fans are infamously among the most demanding in Spain, having become accustomed to a lot of success over the years, both domestically (6 La Liga titles, 7 Copa del Rey trophies) and internationally (1 Cup Winners’ Cup, 1 UEFA Cup and 2 Fairs Cups). It’s not all ancient history either, as Valencia enjoyed four glorious years between 2000 and 2004 when they reached the Champions League final two years in a row under Argentine Héctor Cúper, first losing 3-0 to Real Madrid in 2000, then being defeated on penalties after a 1-1 draw with Bayern Munich in 2001, before Rafa Benítez guided them to two La Liga titles and a UEFA Cup victory against Marseille.

However, that’s when the problems started with Benítez resigning after arguments over control of new signings, when the manager famously complained, “I was hoping for a sofa and they bought me a lamp.” Former manager Claudio Ranieri proved the old adage that you should never go back, as his return lasted less than a season. Although his replacement Quique Sánchez Flores guided Valencia to third and fourth places, his reign was characterised by constant infighting with Sporting Director Armadeo Carboni, which ended with both men leaving the club within few months of each other in 2007.

"Roberto Soldado - the fighting spirit of a soldier"

At the time that Flores was fired, Valencia were just four points off the top of the table, but his replacement, Ronald Koeman from PSV Eindhoven, was a disastrous choice. Not only did he fall out with three of the club’s most popular players (captain David Albelda, goalkeeper Santiago Cañizares and veteran midfielder Miguel Angulo), but the team was perilously close to the relegation zone when he was dismissed, before finally reaching safety in 2008.

Whatever happened on the pitch was nothing to the financial challenges facing Valencia as they encountered a series of incompetent presidents that took the club to the brink of extinction. First up was the rotund figure of Juan Soler, who became president in 2004 with a grand plan, “We’re going to be the envy of Spain.”

However, his delusions of grandeur were built on shaky foundations, almost literally, as the ambitious project to sell the old Mestalla stadium and replace it with the state-of-the-art, revenue generating Nou Mestalla collapsed, as the Spanish property bubble burst at exactly the wrong time.

"Pablo Piatti - one of the young guns"

That might have been outside Soler’s control, but the vast sums splashed out on mediocre players (e.g. Manuel Fernandes, bought for €18 million, sold for €2 million, and Nikola Žigić, bought for €14 million, sold for €7 million) and the constant changes in management (costing over €30 million in severance payments) were certainly down to him. His attempts to “live the dream” resulted in no major trophies, exacerbated by failure to qualify for the Champions League, and massive debts.

Soler briefly brought in Juan Villalonga, the charismatic former chief executive of telecoms giant Telefónica, as a consultant, but he only lasted a couple of weeks before exiting stage left with a large fee for his “expert advice.”

Step forward, Vicente Soriano, the club’s former vice-president, promising €500 million of new investment from a company called Dalport Investments that would clear the club’s debts and enable them to build the new stadium. It sounded too good to be true – and it was. The mysterious backers, whose company logo was revealed to be copied from a children’s colouring book (yes, really), failed to deliver and Valencia faced a serious liquidity problem.

"Silva and Villa - old friends"

Construction work at the new stadium ceased, as bills from the builders were not settled, while the players were not paid for two months. As Emery said, “We have reached rock bottom.” They only managed to get through this with the help of a €50 million loan from a group of local businesses, called Fomento Urbano de Castellon.

The club’s main creditor, the local bank Bancaja, had seen enough and took a seat on the board, imposing a policy of austerity on Valencia and inviting Manuel Llorente to be the new president. He then made a very smart move by launching a share issue that raised €18.5 million from around 26,000 supporters, which demonstrated the strength of feeling for the football club. This “emotional blackmail” helped persuade the regional government to guarantee a €74 million loan from Bancaja that enabled the Valencia Fundació to take a 72.5% stake in the club, which provided much-needed stability.

It was a close run thing, as Llorente admitted, “We have saved a very difficult and worrying situation. Without the intervention of the regional government, we would have defaulted on our payments or been relegated to the Segunda B (third tier of Spanish football).”

However, Valencia are by no means out of the woods yet, as they still carry a vast amount of debt. Soler’s excesses increased this from around €100 million when he took over to a crippling €550 million in 2009. Although this was reduced to €471 million in June 2010, it is still extremely high, only surpassed in Spain by Real Madrid €660 million and Barcelona €549 million, and those two clubs benefit from much higher revenue and greater borrowing capacity. In fact, Valencia’s annual revenue of €102 million means that their debt cover is only 0.22, which is the weakest in La Liga.

The other particularly worrying aspect for Valencia is that a large amount of this debt is from bank loans with €249 million owed to Banaja – and most of that (€229 million) is short-term, so payable within a year. Apart from the standard trade creditors, accruals and provisions, Valencia also owe a large amount (€58 million) to other football clubs for transfer fees, while €31 million of the loan from local businesses remains.

In fairness, since the last accounts were published, Llorente announced last October that the debt had come down to €400 million, while it has been reported, though not confirmed, that it is now down to €370 million. Either way, the club will continue to be burdened with considerable debt until they find a buyer for the old Mestalla.

Following the €92 million capital increase, Valencia’s balance sheet actually appears reasonably strong with €55 million of net assets, despite the huge liabilities. However, this is a bit misleading, as much of the club’s capital is tied up, either in fixed assets (€281 million), mainly due to investment in the new stadium, or in the squad (€71 million). Although the players would be worth much more in the real world, estimated at €165 million by the respected Transfermarkt website, this value could only be realised by selling players. In fact, a study by Deloitte last year concluded that the company shares had “no economic value.”

The Mestalla holds 55,000 supporters, but it has seen better days, so in some ways it was understandable that Valencia embarked on their plan to build a new 75,000 capacity stadium, especially as the local authorities gifted them a plot of land less than two miles from the city centre. The problem was that they had not arranged their funding, believing that they would be able to finance the construction by selling their old stadium. Indeed, they were apparently close to a sale for €320 million, before the market tanked, leading the buyer to drop his offer to €240 million, which was rejected, even though it would have wiped out the club’s bank debts.

In hindsight, this was almost certainly a mistake. As Soriano wryly put it, selling land is not easy “in the largest real estate crisis in history.” Work on the new arena, modeled on a Spanish bullring, commenced in August 2007, but was suspended in February 2009. Valencia have already invested €150 million in the development, but still require a similar amount to complete it. So, now the club finds itself in the bizarre situation of owning two stadiums – one they have not managed to sell and one they cannot afford to finish building.

Another major factor behind Valencia’s spiraling debt levels was the cash splurged on new players with net spend of €133 million in the four years up to 2008. Some of the purchases can only be described as a waste of money, such as €25 million for the inconsistent winger Joaquín, recently sold to Malaga for just €4 million, or nearly €40 million on a bunch of Italian misfits (Francesco Tavano, Marco Di Vaio, Stefano Fiore and Bernard Corradi), though in fairness the latter duo from Lazio were to compensate for unpaid transfer fees for Gaizka Mendieta.

However, the days of big spending have long gone and in the last four years Valencia have generated net sales proceeds of €76 million. As vice-president Javier Gomez admitted, “Before, we had a plan that was based purely on selling the land. Now we need to seek alternatives. We need to win back credibility with the financial institutions.”

That was a precursor to the sales of Villa and Silva (and others) in the 2010 summer window, when gross sales of €84 million meant that Valencia topped the European list of selling clubs. The need to sell was reiterated by Llorente, “Our key objective is economic viability and that means we are obliged to take responsible decisions, one of which is to sell our best players.”

Valencia had gambled on living beyond their means in a desperate attempt to keep up with Real Madrid and Barcelona, but it hasn’t quite worked out like that, as can be seen when comparing the activity of Spain’s leading clubs in the last four years. In that period, Madrid’s net spend was an incredible €312 million, while Barcelona’s net outlay was high by any other standards at €165 million, thus increasing the gap between the big two and the chasing pack.

In fairness, other clubs have also not spent a great deal, but nobody has sold like Valencia, who now also face the emerging threat of Qatari funded Malaga, who have spent €85 million (almost all in the last two seasons). Meanwhile, Valencia have had to shop at the cheaper end of the market (relatively speaking) or enter into innovative deals, such as the two-year loan arrangement for Canales, where they pay Real Madrid €1 million a year with an option to buy for €12 million (though Madrid can then buy the player back for €18 million).

The reality is that Valencia have no money to spend on new players, unless they sell first. Even then, a good proportion of any sales proceeds will go towards reducing debts. Little wonder that even former goalkeeping hero Cañizares saw the sale of top talents as inevitable, “Those players should be at big clubs – like Valencia once was.”

Given Valencia’s financial difficulties, you might expect that the profit and loss account would be a disaster zone, but, on the face, of it the bottom line does not look too bad with the club reporting profits before tax in three of the last six years, including a healthy €18 million in 2009/10. However, that does not tell the whole story, as the results have been significantly influenced by profits on player sales and other exceptional items.

If we take last year as an example, Valencia reported EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortisation) of €9 million, though €30 million of non-cash expenses (player amortisation and depreciation) produced an operating loss of €21 million. Net interest payable of €15 million widened the loss to €36 million before €54 million profits on player sales swung this back to a profit before tax of €18 million.

To be fair, this reliance on player sales is far from uncommon in Spain, as shown by a study of La Liga finances by Professor Jose Maria Gay de Liébena from the University of Barcelona, which revealed that only four clubs made operating profits in the 2009/10 season: Real Madrid, Tenerife, Sporting Gijon and Atletico Madrid. The total operating loss for clubs in La Liga of €213 million was reduced to a combined €93 million loss before tax after once-off items of €192 million had been added and net interest of €73 million deducted.

At this point, I should note that not all clubs had published their 2009/10 accounts when the University of Barcelona performed their review, so they included 2008/09 figures for five clubs (Sporting Gijon, Almeria, Athletic Bilbao, Malaga and Mallorca), while nothing was available for Xerez. Even so, the conclusions are unlikely to be much different when more recent results are available.

We can see that Valencia’s 2009/10 profit before tax of €18 million was only surpassed by Real Madrid’s €31 million, but we have to once again note that their profit on player sales of €54 million was more than any other club. This has very much been the order of the day for Valencia in the past few year. In fact, if profit on player sales and other exceptional items were to be excluded, then Valencia would have reported substantial losses in each of the past six years: 2005 €40 million, 2006 €70 million, 2007 €25 million, 2008 €55 million, 2009 €68 million and 2010 €36 million. That would give a combined loss of nearly €300 million in six years.

Apart from player sales, Valencia’s accounts list profits made from land sales, though it is not clear whether these have actually been realised. In particular, 2006 includes €161 million revenue for the “urban exploitation of the Mas de Porxinos development”, while 2008 features €90 million revenue for the sale of “the first plot of the Mestalla stadium.”

Actually, very little detail is provided in the earlier accounts on the split of the exceptional items between player sales and other activities, but that does not really matter for the purpose of this point, which is that Valencia clearly make large losses at an operating level, amounting to €234 million over the last six years. Admittedly, €186 million of that is due to non cash flow expenses like player amortisation, but this reflects the club’s investment in the playing squad, which is a fairly normal activity for a football club. Even excluding these items, total cash losses in this period added up to €48 million.

On the bright side, when Valencia manage to generate more than €100 million revenue in a year, then they are profitable at the cash (EBITDA) level, but the problem is that they still need to find cash to buy new players and to pay hefty interest charges.

That’s the other aspect of Valencia’s debt that places them at a competitive disadvantage in La Liga, namely that the amount of interest that they have to pay is much more than other leading clubs. Over the last four years, they have had to pay a total of €54 million interest, compared to €39 million at Barcelona, €37 million at Atletico Madrid and €22 million at Real Madrid.

In terms of revenue, Valencia are in a delicate position. The good news is that their 2009/10 income of €102 million placed them fourth highest in Spain at about the same level as Sevilla and only €23 million behind Atletico Madrid, whose position was influenced by Champions League money. In fact, Valencia are one of only five clubs in La Liga that earn more than €100 million revenue, with the remaining clubs considerably behind them with the next highest being Villarreal €59 million and Athletic Bilbao €56 million. Valencia’s revenue is also good enough to put them in 25th position in Deloitte’s European Money League, ahead of clubs like Benfica, Everton, Werder Bremen and Napoli.

The problem is that the big two in Spain, namely Real Madrid and Barcelona receive around four times as much revenue as Valencia with €439 million and €398 million respectively. In other words, they earn €300 million more a season – every season. Financially, they are not just leading the race in Spain, they’re almost out of sight. As money tends to lead to success in sport, an old quote from the boxing promoter Don King could be paraphrased when assessing the chances of any team other than Madrid or Barcelona winning La Liga, “They have two chances: slim and none. And slim just left town.”

And it’s getting worse, as the revenue gap to the “competition” in Spain is actually growing. In 2007, Valencia’s revenue of €108 million was “only” €182 million less than Barcelona’s €290 million, but the shortfall has now risen to €296 million. In that period, Valencia’s revenue has slightly declined, while Barcelona’s has grown by 37% and Real Madrid’s by 25%.

OK, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla have both made great strides in growing their revenue in percentage terms, but the absolute size of the monetary disparity to the big two has increased even with these clubs. From this perspective, the Spanish league is not a fair fight, but is a foregone conclusion before the season kicks-off, unless one of the big two spectacularly implodes.

Like most other clubs, Valencia’s revenue growth has been largely dependent on television, as can be seen in 2010 when the €19 million increase was almost entirely attributed to this revenue stream with the new domestic deal rising by €11 million and the Europa League distribution €4 million higher. Media is up to 46% of Valencia’s revenue and will account for an even larger proportion when Champions League money is taken into consideration.

Match day income has been essentially flat, staying within a €27-29 million range over the last four years, while commercial income has actually fallen from its peak of €25 million in 2008 to €23 million. It should be noted that other income can have an impact on Valencia’s figures, e.g. €8.5 million in 2008.

Valencia are the third best-supported club in Spain with an average attendance in 2010/11 of 41,300, only behind Barcelona 80,400 and Real Madrid 68,300. In 2009/10 this produced match day revenue of €28 million, which was the 19th highest in Europe, just below Manchester City. That’s not bad at all, but (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) pales into insignificance compared to Real Madrid’s €144 million (5 times as much) and Barcelona’s €98 million (3.5 times as much).

Although Valencia’s efforts to move to a new stadium have been fairly comical, this vast difference does help to explain the rationale for the project. In the meantime, this revenue is dependent on the number of matches played, i.e. progress in the cup competitions, and the pricing strategy. In fact, many season ticket prices were lowered for the 2011/12 season in recognition of the financial hardship being encountered by many supporters, so revenue will fall €1.1 million unless another 2,500 tickets are sold.

Despite the increase in television revenue in 2010, Valencia’s €42 million is a fraction of the €140 million that Real Madrid and Barcelona each receive, though it is the same as Atletico Madrid and a fair bit more than Villarreal and Sevilla (€25 million). Unlike all the other major European leagues which employ a form of collective selling, Spanish clubs uniquely market their broadcast rights on an individual basis, so Real Madrid and Barcelona on their own receive around half of the total TV money in La Liga or 12 times as much as the €12 million given to the last clubs on the list (Malaga, Sporting Gijon, Tenerife and Xerez).

This produces the most uneven playing field in Europe and compares unfavourably to the 1.5 multiple in the Premier League between first and last clubs. Looked at another way, Valencia, who finished third in the Spanish league, received less money than West Ham, the team that finished bottom of the Premier League.

This is why the majority of Spanish clubs have been pushing to move the current revenue distribution model towards a collective structure. Tentative agreement has been reached whereby Madrid and Barcelona’s share would be reduced to 34% (still more than a third), but the plan also assumes that Valencia and Atletico Madrid have their share cut from 6.5% to 5.5% each. As most clubs have contracts in place until 2013 or 2014, the new system will only be introduced in 2015.

"Adil Rami meets El Presidente"

Effectively, Valencia have opted to maintain the status quo by denying other clubs the chance to compete with them, while maintaining the inequality with the two Spanish leviathans. Espanyol director Joan Collet did not disguise his bitterness, “If I was an Atletico or Valencia fan, I would be furious, because by signing this, they have admitted they are fighting for third at best.”

On the face of it, the new deal will reduce Valencia’s TV revenue, but there is optimism that the total deal will grow from the current €600 million to €800-900 million, so they could end up taking a smaller slice of a larger pie. This does not seem completely unfeasible, given that the television revenue in La Liga is currently lower than the Premier League, Serie A and Ligue 1.

The current English deal is worth around €1.3 billion a year, which is more than twice as much as the €0.6 billion received by La Liga, the main reason for the difference being the hefty €575 million that the Premier League receives for foreign rights, around four times as much as their Spanish counterparts. If this area could be addressed, taking the total deal up to €900 million, then Valencia’s share would increase €8 million to €50 million.

Valencia’s television revenue for 2009/10 included €4.7 million for reaching the Europa League quarter-finals, where they were unluckily defeated by Atletico Madrid, which was a sizeable increase on the €0.4 million received for the previous season’s UEFA Cup.

However, the big money in Europe comes from participation in the Champions League, and Valencia earned €24.1 million in 2010/11 for reaching the last 16. Assuming that their other revenue streams remain unchanged, this would increase their total revenue by 20% to around €121 million. When commenting on the club’s debt reduction, president Llorente emphasised “how important it is for us to play in the Champions League”, because the majority of the money used to repay loans “came from earnings in that competition.”

Although there has been a lot of discussion about the huge gap between the big two and the rest of the clubs in Spain in TV revenue, it has seemingly gone unnoticed that it is very much the same story on the commercial front. Valencia’s revenue here of €23 million is perfectly respectable (4th highest in Spain), but is around €100 million less than Real Madrid and Barcelona.

Again, the situation appears to be getting worse, as no fewer than six La Liga clubs started this season without a shirt sponsor, including Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, Villarreal and indeed Valencia, who in the Barcelona match actually sported their Twitter handle on their shirts. For the last two years, Valencia were sponsored by online gambling company Unibet, who reportedly paid them €6 million a season for the privilege, though some of that was used to pay the wages of certain foreign players. Before that, the relationship with Valencia Experience ended in tears, as the club started legal proceedings for non-payment.

There is better news with the kit supplier deal, as Joma have signed a five-year deal running until 2016, which is reputedly worth €4 million a year. They replaced Kappa, who were paying just under €2 million a year, while the previous long-term relationship with Nike brought in €1.5 million a season.

The revenue theme is repeated in the costs, where Valencia’s 2009/10 wage bill of €73 million was only lower than the big two – but it was significantly lower, with Barcelona spending €235 million (inflated by performance-related bonus payments) and Real Madrid €192 million.

Even so, Los Che have been consistently above UEFA’s recommended maximum wages to turnover limit of 70% in the last few years, even though their wage bill has been essentially flat. This is in stark contrast to many other clubs, who have seen their wage bills surge in the same period.

In fact, after a board meeting last September, Llorente said that the 2010/11 financials would show total operating expenses falling by €18 million from €92 million in 2009/10 to €74 million. Most of this was attributed to a substantial fall in wages, which Llorente quantified as 21% compared to the €74.5 million paid out in 2008/09, implying an amazing €15.6 million decrease to €58.9 million. Although this is a dramatic reduction, it does only bring Valencia to a similar level as Atletico Madrid €62 million and Sevilla €61 million.

The club’s austerity policy has seen it reduce salaries, including the president’s, and cut jobs, including the post of sporting director Fernando Gomez. This is the other (financial) benefit of selling top players, as losing the high salaries of the likes of Villa, Silva and Mata helps reduce the overall wage bill. This helps explain why Valencia were willing to let players like Joaquín and Fernandes leave so cheaply. Indeed, Joaquin was only offered an extension to his contract at €2 million, which was €1 million lower than his previous agreement, while Malaga are apparently paying him €4 million.

The other major player cost is amortisation, which fell slightly last year to €29 million, not much more than it was in 2005. For the non-accountants, I should explain that amortisation is the annual cost of writing-down a player’s purchase price, e.g. Rami was signed for €6 million on a four-year contract, but his transfer is only reflected in the profit and loss account via amortisation, which is booked evenly over the life of his contract, i.e. €1.5 million a year (€6 million divided by four years).

Given the limited activity in the transfer market, you might expect player amortisation to fall further, but this is not necessarily the case, as it depends on how much amortisation remained on the players that departed. In any case, if it does rise, it is unlikely to be by very much.

"Sergio Canales - loan star"

Valencia’s financial future is partly down to their own actions, but is also linked to external factors not under their control. Spanish football is struggling under the burden of debt, which has reached €3.4 billion for the 20 clubs in La Liga. Indeed, no fewer than six clubs in Spain’s top division are currently in administration: Racing Santander, Real Mallorca, Real Zaragoza and all three promoted clubs (Real Betis, Rayo Vallecano and Granada).

Consequently, the beginning of this season was delayed by a players’ strike over unpaid wages. The figures are frightening with 200 players owed a total of €50 million, up from €12 million owed to 100 players the previous year. The Spanish Football League (LFP) is now taking action with a proposal to implement rules designed to curb the clubs’ excessive spending. As its president Jose Luis Astiazaran commented, “We are not immune from the wider economy.”

Valencia’s own strategy was clearly outlined by vice-president Javier Gomez a couple of years ago, “The club is in a very delicate situation. It has to control spending, grow income and sell assets.”

"Pablo Hernandez - can do it at the highest level"

As we have seen, they have certainly taken steps to control spending by slashing the wage bill and other operating expenses, but, as any business will tell you, growing income is far more difficult. In the short-term, the only realistic opportunity is regular qualification for the lucrative Champions League, which, in fairness, Valencia have achieved for the last two seasons.

This raises the spectre of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play rules that force clubs to live within their means if they wish to compete in Europe. This is going to be touch and go for Valencia unless they continue to qualify for Europe, so this becomes a bit of a circular argument. The last reported operating loss was €21 million, but this should largely be eradicated this season by savings that the club announced. However, Valencia then have to find €15 million for interest payments, leading to an annual loss of a similar amount.

This could be covered by Champions League money – or continuing the policy of profitably selling players. Llorente endorsed this view a few months ago, “The sale of players is no longer necessary to balance the budget… because of the money we are getting from the Champions League.” Since that statement, Mata has been sold to Chelsea, but this could equally have been a sporting decision as a financial one.

"David Albelda - loves a tackle"

What will help all clubs is that UEFA’s break-even calculation allows certain costs to be excluded, such as youth academy, depreciation and interest on infrastructure like a stadium, so Valencia should theoretically be fine. However, the allowable losses (acceptable deviations) are only an aggregate €5 million for 3 years if the losses are not covered by an owner, as opposed to €45 million if they are covered. As Valencia do not have a wealthy benefactor, that could potentially be an issue.

Of course, the major concern for Valencia remains the stadium. Earlier this year the club extended the Bancaja mortgage for a year beyond its June 2011 expiration date to give them more time to find a buyer for the Mestalla. This is a calculated gamble, costing €15 million of interest, as it was reported that the bank had been willing to clear the €240 million debt in exchange for the land. Llorente still believes that he can get at least €300 million, though this seems fairly optimistic, given the state of the real estate market.

The bank could still offer the same deal next year, but Valencia would then need to take out a new loan to fund the completion of the Nou Mestalla. Last year Llorente estimated that the club would need a further €126 million (and 22 months of work), but the press has reported that some areas of the new stadium are already damaged beyond repair, so this sum could easily rise to €150-200 million.

"More songs about buildings and fools"

Although Valencia have said that they would be open to a ground share with Levante, this does not seem to be a realistic option, as their neighbours do not have enough money to share the construction costs, which is a pre-requisite for any agreement.

Nevertheless, it may still be the right decision to push ahead, because Valencia could potentially end up with lower debt, albeit still too high for a club of their magnitude, but at least they would have a new stadium that should generate more revenue.

Whatever happens, it would be unrealistic to expect Valencia to do any better than they have in the past couple of seasons, especially after Llorente has adopted a far more level-headed approach to the transfer market than his chaotic predecessors. Finishing third behind Barcelona and Real Madrid is nothing to be ashamed of. In fact, given all of the financial pressures that have forced Valencia to continually sell their best players, it’s a great achievement that is deserving of much praise.

Share:

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Fundsupermart October Seminars 2011 - Value Investing

Market is down, many people are sad but how about you ? Have some extra money at hand ? Looking for opportunity to invest ? Even you don't have cash but do you know you can invest into mutual fund with your EPF ?  Fundsupermart says its time to go in because the price is below the value now - buy low now !


 ... read here for their October FREE seminars, 1 Oct in KL and 8 Oct in Penang.  Prepare your EPF statements ( print for FREE from EPF office or login online ) ... They are going to whack your EPF hard that day :)

You can also use your EPF $ to invest into stocks market but you may want to check out this article first.
Share:

Friday, September 23, 2011

Warren Buffet 6 billions strategy ?

Follow up on a concern if Warren Buffet's era may come to an end soon posted in August 2011, the figures are now out and considered as 'correct' as calculated by Forbes ...

Steven who works in Forbes has calculated that Warren Buffet is officially the BIGGEST MONEY LOSER, at an amount of USD 6 billions.  But this is not the first time Warren Buffet going through this kind of challenge.  He has always come back up stronger for the past 8 times but can he makes it again this round ?

There are 2 key distinct differences in his challenges today.

  1. His age : Warren has come to a stage that he would give everything he has, back to the country or people he loves truly.  Business ( Berkshire Hathaway ) is surely something he hold on to very strongly but NOT necessary to all the investors themselves.  If one day he realizes 'most' of the investors in his business is no longer 'his investors' like last time, he may just pull the plug.  After all, as far as his business is concerned, a successor plan is already in place.
  2. When USA gets into trouble by its own doing in the past, everyone forgive him because he is the  ONLY entity who can fix the situation.  There were NO ONE ELSE we could keep our hopes on except USA itself.  Hence, we always go back and work with USA politely.  Today, although still without an apparent replacement for such a giant over the centuries ... but there are clear candidates for many to put their hopes onto.  Hence, almost no one is expecting USA to fix anything today, not even their own citizen.  This ... is also something that hasn't happen in the past, at least not to this scale.

Having said all that, my bet is that Warren will come back up stronger than ever because
  1. Today's indicators shows that whoever already in the market and want to continue to stay in the market would need a staying power of about 1.5 years.  BH has no problem with this requirement because of their low operation cost.
  2. Warren doesn't really love anyone else more than BH.  But as indicated above, Warren doesn't love his investors as much as he used to, simply because his today's investors are rather different now.
  3. Warren needed a good bye event . . . well, to say good bye.  And this is NOT it !
Share:

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Answers to the 8 toughest retirement decisions

Investopedia has brought up the 8 toughest retirement decisions and here MalPF shares her answers

Q: When to retire ?
A: You can retire ANY TIME by adjusting your lifestyle vs your saving.  Retirement is NOT defined by your country or your financial advisor.  It is an 'action' you can take any time to stop working.

Q: When to withdraw retirement money ?
A: If you Social Security/EPF is generating lower return than your saving/investment, then withdraw them.

Q: Where to live ?
A: Live where you are now, you can move any time you want later.

Q: To continue working or not ?
A: Work on whatever you like.  It should have been that way anyway even before you retire.

Q: Sell the house or not ?
A: If the offer is good or cannot afford repayment anymore, sell it !

Q: How to deal with IRA ?
A: Just follow the rules, minimize the penalty if any.

Q: How to manage investment portfolio ?
A: As is.  You don't just happen to retire suddenly.  How you manage your portfolio before is how you may most probably continue to manage it that way, with some continuous improvement along the way.

Q: How to budget ?
A: If you haven't managed your budget by then, you probably will never be.
Share:

reply to PM asking for more money

the news: Malaysia is destined to double its income in the next 9 years.  In order to achieve that, the "domestic" folks must fork out MYR 94 billions a year until year 2020.  But in 2011, we are behind schedule with only MYR 27 billions domestic direct investment so far. . . .  so the prime minister asked us to invest more locally.

Dear boss,

I would love to invest into my own land and I also want to double my income.  In order to achieve that, each of my investment . . . well, must turn into a 200% income generator.  Which of our projects is generating this kind of return ?

Bakun Dam ?
Putrajaya ? Cyberjaya ?
Greater KL MRT ?  *
SMART tunnel ?
Penang / Singapore Bridges ?
Iskandar Malaysia ?
Karambunai Sabah ? *
100 storey tower ?

Do let me know as I wasn't aware of such a great domestic investment opportunity before.

However, if you just need donation, then just say so lah.  I will still give one ...

Love,
MalPF.com 



Share:

Labels

Blog Archive

Recent Posts

Unordered List

Theme Support